Thursday, June 23, 2005
Goodbye, John.....well, sort of
So John's gone as leader of the Country Whinger's Party, citing a dodgy prostate. Wouldn't be the first time the Rural Rump has been a pain in the arse, but there it is.
In all fairness to the bloke, he does have a medical condition that's less than fun. Unfortunately for the Whingers, they've also got a problem when it comes to Telstra and their natural constituency. I almost sympathise with the Whingers, representing a group of people who's motto seems to be "we'll all be rooned", but not enough to give a toss if they have a few issues selling the Telstra sale to the hicks.
Interesting thing about all this is Ando's not retiring from the House. And I think this suggests that the CWP are more nervous than they let on about Telstra.
Independents don’t win marginal seats, they win safe ones, the safer the easier (refer to the state seats of Chaffey and Mt Gambier in SA as examples). Now, with the Telstra issue really biting in the bush, an independent candidate (like a local mayor, state member etc) promising to fight the full sale of the telco could conceivably get up. When you take into account the fact that the government of the day usually sufers a swing against in a by-election, and the fact that Ando’s primary vote would be inflated due to his local name and popularity, there is a very good chance an independent with good preference deals could win the seat.
Now that would be a monumental slap in the face for the Government, and a real blow to their chances of getting the full sale thru the Senate, given people like Barnaby Joyce’s ruminations. The Nationals would oppose the sale if they saw it as a choice between political extinction and selling Telstra, and losing Gwydir to an anti-Telstra candidate would almost ensure dramas between the Coalition partners on that score.
So Ando’s going to hold on til ‘07….wise move, from a political angle, methinks.
.
In all fairness to the bloke, he does have a medical condition that's less than fun. Unfortunately for the Whingers, they've also got a problem when it comes to Telstra and their natural constituency. I almost sympathise with the Whingers, representing a group of people who's motto seems to be "we'll all be rooned", but not enough to give a toss if they have a few issues selling the Telstra sale to the hicks.
Interesting thing about all this is Ando's not retiring from the House. And I think this suggests that the CWP are more nervous than they let on about Telstra.
Independents don’t win marginal seats, they win safe ones, the safer the easier (refer to the state seats of Chaffey and Mt Gambier in SA as examples). Now, with the Telstra issue really biting in the bush, an independent candidate (like a local mayor, state member etc) promising to fight the full sale of the telco could conceivably get up. When you take into account the fact that the government of the day usually sufers a swing against in a by-election, and the fact that Ando’s primary vote would be inflated due to his local name and popularity, there is a very good chance an independent with good preference deals could win the seat.
Now that would be a monumental slap in the face for the Government, and a real blow to their chances of getting the full sale thru the Senate, given people like Barnaby Joyce’s ruminations. The Nationals would oppose the sale if they saw it as a choice between political extinction and selling Telstra, and losing Gwydir to an anti-Telstra candidate would almost ensure dramas between the Coalition partners on that score.
So Ando’s going to hold on til ‘07….wise move, from a political angle, methinks.
.
