The Red-Capped Prophet

I've been watching with a sort of grim fascination lately, as the Federal Labor Party seems to be having the mother of all second thoughts about Kim Beazley as leader. Again.

Now I'm not exactly president of the Kim Beazley Fan Club. At times, he would have lost a spinal competition with an amoeba, and he uses 57 words where four will do. But I do think he's actually got this one something close to right.

What the hell is it with the Left? After crying for years that nobody sticks up for the bottom 80% of society anymore, that they've abandoned their roots, and all the other bleating coming from the cheap seats, Kim finally grew a spine and opposed the silliest, most blatantly unfair set of fiscal policies we've seen in a long, long time. And now he's being berated for that! You can't win with these wingnuts.

Now I will agree that the whole thing could well have been handled better. Kim should have waited two days until his Budget reply to articulate his response, instead of shooting on the run Latham-style in an interview on the night. And the word "amend" instead of "oppose" would have worked a treat too. But all the triumphalist babble from the right-wing commentariat (Bolt, et al) and the rantings of sections of the Federal caucus and the ALP generally, ignores a couple of things.

Firstly, there hasn't been any great movement in the polls on the back of this issue. If it was shaking Middle Australia to its foundations, we'd be seeing more than a 51-49 split in the polls....it'd be more 54-46. October '04 saw it at 53-47, and in the eight months succeeding we've seen Howard playing the statesman after the tsunami, Latham's demise (and none too pretty at that), a massive bribe of a Budget from the government, and this supposed massive cock-up from Beazley. And it's 51-49 (52-48 if you're very generous) .

I think reports of the ALP's demise have been exaggerated, to tell you the complete truth. In fact, I'd say that Brand Labor looks ok - at least much better than it did on October 10, 2004. WA returned a Labor government quite nonchalantly, the NT should see a strong Labor retain in the election there on the weekend, and Beazley is actually punching on. Now, he doesn't posess the earthy charm of a Hawkie, or the verbal swordplay of Keating, but he is actually punching on.

I'm going to ignore the dribblings of the Right and their mouthpieces - it would be strange indeed for the ALP to start setting it's agenda with their satisfaction in mind. But the utter tools on our own side of the fence.....well, they just about drive me all to pot.

What would these morons on the Left have him (and the Federal ALP generally) do? Pick a fight over the DIMIA business? Wake up and smell the oil in the water - the public do not care anymore, if they ever did. Unless you've got video of Peter Reith strangling a child, that one's dead as an issue. Keep interest rates low, or promise to, and people do not give a flying suitcase if some smelly reffos are locked away. Besides, previous weak-kneed responses to that issue from the ALP have rather hand-cuffed them at the moment....and Amandatory Dentention Vanstone and her bumbling, mumbling department are doing a splendid job of making themselves look stupid without any help at all.

Carry on about the welfare cuts in the Budget? Ok, the absolute immorality of giving wealthy buggers squillions, and paying for it by ripping off the disabled, and then suggesting that if you have a disability you're somehow rorting the system, makes us all sick. And I suspect, turns off more than a few mortgage-belt swingers. But how can the ALP talk about all that, if it supports the tax cuts? You have to oppose them, or you might as well shut up.

The welfare lobby is quietly organising. Targetted, smart campaigns, in marginal seats, with high numbers of disabled people in them....it's happening. Why would Bomber need to even talk about it, except the obligatory blast every now and again. Just let the lobby go to work, and position yourself to benefit from the odium that will attach to the notion of kicking a bttler when he's down. How do you do that? OPPOSE THE TAX CUTS.

I have a feeling that two years from now, this period could be remarked upon as the beginning of the end for the Howard years. Yes, it might get rough, and we might cop some bad polling in the short-term (although I've given my view about that earlier). But in every electoral cycle since 1996, the ALP have led the government during the "off years", only to be beaten at the booth when it matters. People aren't voting now, but they are getting a sense of what Kim and the ALP are all about.

What's so scary about a genuine policy sh*t fight? Let's have an argument about ideas, let's have a fight about policy. We beat the living suitcase out of each other over here on the Left; why do we quiver at the thought of beating up the Libs occasionally?

Let's have that debate. Because when you stack the Left agenda up against the Right's, the Left wins damn near every time. And if we don't believe that, what the hell are we doing on the Left? We need to pull our heads out of our polls, and get a brawl going. Because when the rest of it all, when the DIMIA scandals and the welfare backlash and the poor economic management kicks in, all people will want to know is two things - what do you stand for, and, can we trust you? We lost 2001 on the first question and 2004 on the second. And big Kim seems to have grasped that nettle at long last.

So for those of you moderate lefties like me - hang in there. Kim's not a populist like our esteemed Premiers, and he might have swallowed a thesaurus when he was 15, but he just might be on to something here. And if nothing else, he's right.

Update - poll published in Sydney's Tele (admittedly not the high water mark of opinion polling, but if anyone else has even asked the question I'd like to see it), asks the question, "Should Labor block the tax cuts?" Even with a loaded question like that, result was 52% yes, 40% no, 8% uncommitted.

Vindication? No. Indication? Yes.